Prop 8 Won’t Be on The Ballot in 2010

by Brian Leubitz

Today, Love Honor Cherish, the leader of the Repeal Prop 8 2010 organization sent out a press release announcing that they had failed to get enough signatures on the ballot. (The full release is available in the full post.)

Love Honor Cherish, which spearheaded an effort to place an initiative on the November 2010 ballot to repeal Proposition 8 and restore equal marriage rights for same-sex couples, announced today that the proponents did not gather the 694,354 signatures necessary to place the proposed initiative on the ballot. The group vowed to work toward the repeal of Prop 8 at the next general election in November 2012.

“This is a heartbreaking moment,” said John Henning, Executive Director of Love Honor Cherish. “Despite the dogged efforts of hundreds of volunteers across California, we did not get the signatures we needed within the 150-day window set by the state.”

Under California law, it is too late to mount a new effort to repeal Prop 8 in 2010. “Regrettably, Prop 8 will remain as a stain on our constitution until at least 2012, and perhaps later,” said Henning. He challenged activists statewide to rededicate themselves and unify behind a 2012 repeal effort.

While this isn’t a surprise, it does end a trying divide within the LGBT community. I do not speak for the courage campaign or anybody other than myself here, but generally, I’m inclined to believe gubernatorial elections have a better electorate for our side. That is 2010 would have been better than 2008, and 2014 will be better than 2012. During off year elections, you get better educated electorates, and that correlates fairly well with those who aren’t really bothered by marriage equality. I have done some analysis looking at that, but also have spoken to a few huge voter number nerds who agree with that hypothesis. It’s still an open question, however.

That being said, time matters as well, probably even more than presidential or gubernatorial year. As more millenials spill into the voting ranks, more pro-equality votes are stacking up on our side. While 2 years won’t make a huge difference, many number nerds think it is just under 2 percent per year that the electorate moves toward equality. Obviously, that’s far from a precise number, but 4 percent would be enough to flip the Prop 8 vote around.

That being said, this time we would be running a Yes campaign, which is always more challenging. Given this news and the rumblings coming out of major LGBT organizations, it looks we are headed like a laser beam towards a 2012 confrontation for our marriage rights.

It’s a shame that Prop 8 still stands, and it is my sincere hope that Judge Walker and the federal courts strike it down. However, I am very cognizant of the fact that we are likely headed to the ballot. Get your door-knocking shoes all polished up, we have work to do.

INITIATIVE TO REPEAL PROP 8 WILL NOT BE ON THE BALLOT IN 2010
All-Volunteer Petition Drive Triggered Conversations Across California
(LOS ANGELES – April 12, 2010)

Love Honor Cherish, which spearheaded an effort to place an initiative on the November 2010 ballot to repeal Proposition 8 and restore equal marriage rights for same-sex couples, announced today that the proponents did not gather the 694,354 signatures necessary to place the proposed initiative on the ballot. The group vowed to work toward the repeal of Prop 8 at the next general election in November 2012.

“This is a heartbreaking moment,” said John Henning, Executive Director of Love Honor Cherish. “Despite the dogged efforts of hundreds of volunteers across California, we did not get the signatures we needed within the 150-day window set by the state.”

Under California law, it is too late to mount a new effort to repeal Prop 8 in 2010. “Regrettably, Prop 8 will remain as a stain on our constitution until at least 2012, and perhaps later,” said Henning. He challenged activists statewide to rededicate themselves and unify behind a 2012 repeal effort.

Prop 8 passed by a margin of 52 to 48 percent. However, polls taken since the vote have shown that a majority of Californians now support the right of same-sex couples to marry, indicating that a new ballot proposition to repeal Prop 8 would be likely to pass in November 2010. In March, a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California showed a 6 percent increase in support for equal marriage rights in just the last year.

The proponents of the repeal initiative sought to seize the momentum unleashed by the passage of Prop 8 and parlay it into a victory at the polls. “This signature campaign was the right thing to do in the wake of Prop 8,” said Love Honor Cherish board member Lester Aponte. “We were determined to act affirmatively to achieve equality and we will continue to do that until Prop 8 has been finally repealed. We had hundreds of thousands of conversations with California voters about the right to marry and we know that we have moved hearts and minds. In the process, we have set the foundation for a future repeal effort and brought hope to thousands whose hearts were broken by the passage of Prop 8.”

Love Honor Cherish was one of more than 40 groups supporting the repeal of Prop 8 in November 2010, and was part of the Restore Equality 2010 coalition. The campaign utilized a unique web-based social networking tool, located at http://www.SignForEquality.com, which enabled volunteers to download the petition form, watch training videos and join teams.